New Research Challenges Decades of Assumptions About Running Injuries

Study finds while most running injuries are progressive by nature, they can also develop over one single session

• Physical Activity, Sport and Health
• Decathlon Run Study
• Department of Precision Health

A new study by Aarhus University in Denmark, along with the Luxembourg Institute of Health and other partners, overturns long-standing beliefs about what causes running injuries. The research, sponsored by Garmin International and conducted in over 80 countries, shows that orthodox indicators and sports watch algorithms may not help predict injury risk after all.

For years, runners and trainers have relied on established principles like weekly workload and acute-to-chronic load ratios to predict and prevent injuries. These parameters are also used to develop algorithms for sports watches and other running technologies. Now, new research suggests those methods may actually be misguided.

The Garmin-RUNSAFE Running Health Study, the largest ever of its kind, monitored over 5000 recreational runners in 87 countries over 18 months and found no clear link between these indicators and injury development. The results suggest that our understanding of how running injuries occur may need a fundamental rethink.

Published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, a top journal in the field, the study shows that injury risk increases exponentially when runners increase their distance in a single training session compared to their longest run in the past month. The longer the run, the higher the injury risk. This seemingly confirms the 10% rule, a long-standing guideline among runners that states one should not increase their weekly mileage by more than 10% to minimize injury risk.

“This study provides strong evidence that the variables we thought were essential for injury prevention might not matter as much as we thought,” said Laurent Malisoux, Group Leader of the Physical Activity Sport and Health group at the Luxembourg Institute of Health and co-author of the study. “While we previously thought that most injuries slowly develop over time, it actually looks like most of them may happen suddenly due to a mistake made by the runner over one single session. The popular 10% rule is a good guideline to follow.”

The authors have also developed a new algorithm, available for free, that they hope will be implemented in existing running technology and help prevent injuries from occurring. The LIH is also recruiting runners for an injury prevention study currently ongoing with sports outfitter Decathlon.