Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling. (Book)
- Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics
This book is based upon an EPSRC funded project aimed at sharing understanding of modelling complex phenomena. The aim of the book is to ease communication between modellers in different disciplines. The book is useful to physicists wishing to find out about statistical approaches to modelling and to statisticians wishing to learn about modelling in the physical sciences. It is also a useful source of modelling case histories. The book provides a much-needed reference guide for approaching statistical modeling and a useful source for modeling case histories.
The book consists of four sections:
1. An introductory section covering important concepts in modeling and outlining different traditions as regards the relative utility of simple and complex modeling in statistics.
2. Subject specific chapters illustrating modeling approaches in various disciplines
3. A summary chapter explaining what issues have been resolved and which remain unresolved
4. A glossary giving terms commonly used in different modeling traditions.
This book covers a number of case studies of complex modeling, including climate change, flood risk, deterministic computer modeling and how well the model can predict reality, water distribution systems and looks at how this has evolved, new drug development models and its usage and the petroleum industry and uncertainty of accurate forecasts.